Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
